Prediction from ZenithOptimedia Adspend Forecast
Internet advertising expenditures will surpass newspaper advertising in 2013, to become the second largest advertising medium, according to the most recent quarterly forecast on global advertising expenditures by ZenithOptimedia (July 2011).
With a forecasted growth rate of 14.2% per annum, Internet advertising will grow from $63 billion in 2010 to almost $954.5 billion in 2013. Advertising in global newspapers is predicted to decline over this same period from $95.2 billion last year to just $92.8 billion in 2013.
If these projections come to fruition, Internet advertising will account for 18.3% of all global advertising expenditure (up from 14.1% last year), while newspapers will receive just 17.9% of the advertising pie, down from 21.3% last year.
Television advertising is forecast to have moderate growth, going from 40.4% share last year to 41.4% in 2013. Television accounts for the most new ad dollars over this period, growing from some $180 billion last year to almost $216 billion in 2013. TV advertising will remain at twice the level of the second highest medium.
While advertising in China will be approximately 50% higher in 2013, all markets are miniscule compared to the behemoth USA market, which at $151.5 billion last year was 3.3 times larger than second place Japan at $43.3 billion.
Over the next two years China will surpass Germany for the third spot on the advertising expenditure leader board, while Australia will climb one spot from 9th to 8th. Italy is projected to drop out of the top ten ad markets and will be replaced by Russia.
An interesting break down of Internet advertising expenditures shows paid search advertising accounting for almost 50%, with display advertising (36%) and classified ads (15%) accounting for the rest of this $90+ billion advertising pie.